Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott: Head-to-Head Preview
Event: UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott — October 17, 2026, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Image credit: UFC.com
Joaquin Buckley returns to the cage on a two-fight skid, and standing across from him in Edmonton is the worst possible kind of opponent for a man in a slump: Mike Malott, a well-rounded Canadian riding four straight wins — fighting at home.
Tale of the tape
| Joaquin Buckley | Mike Malott | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-8-0 | 14-2-1 |
| Height / Reach | 5'10" / 76" | 6'1" / 73" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Age | 32 | 34 |
| Streak | L2 | W4 |
| SLpM (acc.) | 3.62 (36%) | 4.02 (48%) |
| Strikes absorbed/min | 3.10 | 3.09 |
| Takedown avg (acc.) | 1.43 (45%) | 1.63 (50%) |
| Submission avg | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| Finish rate | 73% | 75% |
Form guide: last five
Buckley (L2): decision losses to Sean Brady and Kamaru Usman — both elite wrestlers who smothered him for rounds. Before the skid: back-to-back knockouts of Colby Covington and Stephen Thompson, plus a decision over Nursulton Ruziboev. The power is still there; the problem has been opponents who won't stand and trade.
Malott (W4): a third-round KO of Gilbert Burns in April, a decision over Kevin Holland, a second-round KO of Charles Radtke, and a decision over Trevin Giles. His only stoppage loss ever came against Neil Magny in early 2024 — since then, four straight wins over increasingly credible names.
The stylistic clash
On paper this looks like a striker's duel, but the details favor the Canadian:
- Accuracy gap: Malott lands 48% of his strikes to Buckley's 36% — a wide gulf. Both absorb about the same (3.1/min), so the cleaner puncher wins exchanges.
- The wrestling question: Buckley's two losses came against wrestlers (Brady, Usman). Malott averages 1.63 takedowns at 50% accuracy with a 0.7 submission average — he can grapple, and Buckley's 0.1 submission average shows almost no ground offense of his own.
- Power vs. composure: Buckley's 8 career knockouts (73% finish rate) mean he's never out of a fight — the Covington and Thompson KOs prove he can end anyone's night. But wild power punching at 36% accuracy against a composed, accurate counterpuncher is a risky game plan.
Paths to victory
Buckley wins if: he turns it into a brawl early. His best chance is the first two rounds — blitz Malott before the Canadian settles into rhythm, the way he did against Covington and Thompson. If he lets Malott dictate pace, the fight slips away.
Malott wins if: he stays disciplined, uses the jab and straight punches (southpaw vs orthodox = open stance, his straight right is the money punch), mixes in takedowns to bank rounds, and avoids the early storm. Fighting at home in Edmonton, the crowd carries him through the tough moments.
Prediction
Malott by unanimous decision. The data points one way: better accuracy (+12%), a live wrestling game against an opponent whose recent losses both came via wrestling, four-fight momentum against two-fight skid, and home advantage. Buckley's puncher's chance is genuine — 8 KOs don't lie — but Malott has only been finished once in 17 fights, and the most likely outcome is the Canadian out-landing and out-grappling Buckley over three rounds.
Fight data compiled from public statistical sources (ufcstats.com) and Wikipedia (CC BY-SA). OctagonStats is an independent database, not affiliated with UFC / TKO Group.